Sea Otters and Kelp Lab

Sea otters eat sea urchins. Sea urchins eat kelp. Count a seafloor the way a dive team does, model a coast with and without otters, and follow the comeback of California's sea otters.

Graph

These are models. Real seafloors and populations also change with storms, El Niño years, oil spills, fishing gear, other predators and prey, and luck. The models leave those out so every run gives the same answer. Tab 1: the quadrat counts are practice numbers made to show the pattern Estes and Palmisano reported (Science, 1974); they are not their raw data. Tab 2: the coast model is tuned to show the pattern, and its otter loss rate matches the roughly 25% a year Estes and others measured in the 1990s (Science, 1998). Tab 3: the dots are real U.S. Geological Survey spring counts (3-year averages; mainland to 2012, range-wide index from 2013); the 1938 dot is an estimate; the model's carrying capacity and death rates are tuned to fit the dots, not measured. Environmental Science, Chapter 5: Sea Otters Step Up, and Case Study: The Southern Sea Otter.